Should Mitchell Robinson start when he returns?

The Knicks began the season with the 7 footer as a starter but his backup may end up keeping that spot in the rotation. Who should be the de facto starter come playoff time?

We definitely take him for granted. We always have.

During the “We Here” season, Nerlens Noel stepped up immensely, and there were murmurs of Mitch being “expendable.” Even after Noel no-showed in the playoffs when he matched up against Clint Capela, many pointed to his health over the oft-injured Robinson. Nerlens never regained the defensive ability he showed in 2021 and was promptly replaced by Isaiah Hartenstein. Mitch showed an improvement in his defensive principles, and those improvements became the backbone of the New York Knick defensive scheme. His rebounding rate also improved, and rebounding became the foundation of New York’s offense. Robinson’s physicality on the boards was a primary reason the Knicks dominated the Cleveland Cavaliers in their most recent playoff showing. And just in case you were unconvinced, Mitch began the season as if he had eyes on attaining some Defensive Player of the Year votes.

Despite all of this, it seems, everyone is calling for Isaiah Hartenstein to be the Knicks starting center. Mitchell Robinson began to see a decline in performance before he suffered an ankle injury that would put him out for months, but there is more to it than the backup stepping up in his absence. Offensively, Hartenstein appears to be a better fit as he is able to make shrewd passes from various positions on the court. He is also emerging as a more solid scorer than Robinson, who began struggling in that area despite finishing at the top of the league in field goal percentage over several seasons. This season, Mitch’s percentages are down from the field (59.2%, a career low), and he remains woeful from the foul line (36%, also a career low). His effectiveness came primarily in the paint where he corralled misses, and had the consequence of making scoring a bigger chore for the other starters in the same area. If he’s not dunking, or tipping a shot in, Mitch’s offensive game is pretty non-existent. Not so far Hartenstein who, in addition to his passing, had developed a reliable floater. Isaiah’s defense and rebounding have also been more than adequate in Robinson’s absence.

While the winds seem to be blowing in favor of Hartenstein getting the start (as head coach Tom Thibodeau declared officially), the case for whether he should is certainly not closed. Regardless of the positive play he has provided, it still can’t be argued that he is a better defender or rebounder than his fellow big man. The starting line up, when healthy, is already well balanced offensively sans a center. The biggest weakness in that lineup, at least as far as personnel, is unequivocally its defense with Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle. While the offense Isaiah brings can be important to that unit, it is the bench unit that is starved for an offensive boost.

The trade that brought in Alec Burks and Bojan Bogdanovic was supposed to cure those ails, but it has become clear that neither is capable of organizing an offense (even when matched up against bench units). We have seen a Knicks offense despite Robinson’s limitations, even when there was less spacing next to him. Now with OG Anunoby as an additional floor spacer, the offense should look slightly better than it did when Mitch was last on the court. Sticking Mitch on a unit next to Deuce McBride, Josh Hart, Precious Achiuwa and/or Bogdanovic would make the bench’s offense even worse. Yeah, the defense would be amazing, but it’s hard to envision how they would win the possession battle outside of Josh Hart fast break points. With Hartenstein, the bench defense should remain sound, and they would be able to run actions in the half-court with Isaiah’s passing.

The other important aspect is maintaining the health of both bigs. Isaiah has been playing through an achilles injury that the Knicks need to be extremely cautious with. If he can make it to Mitch’s return, the Knicks would be wise to split those center minutes three ways between Robinson, Hartenstein, and Achiuwa. Slowly let Mitch regain his conditioning while phasing Hartenstein in to a rest week. The emergence of Precious can be a boon to both big men if managed correctly. If head coach Tom Thibodeau can be convinced to execute such a plan, and the Knicks are lucky, a healthy 9-man rotation entering the playoffs should be expected. Hartenstein playing while injured is a problem that can be worsened if he continues to start. Starting leaves a longer stretch of time where the big man can injure himself if we assume he also closes. If he can enter the game after at least 10 minutes have already ticked off the clock, you are automatically minimizing risk. Mitch can ramp up his conditioning by starting, and playing stints over a 48 minute regulation game.

An unlikely side effect of the three-way center rotation is that it might entice Thibs to employ a 10-man rotation. As I previously wrote, a fully healthy Knicks team has at least 11 capable rotation players, with a coach who is more comfortable playing 8 or 9 players. Unless This opts not to play both Burks and Bogdanovic (a possibility with how they’ve struggled), that would leave one of his most relied upon big men without a role behind Josh Hart, Deuce McBride and whoever his bench big man may be. That is unless he uses Precious Achiuwa, who has had stretches of brilliance since joining New York, as a third center to keep both Mitch and Isaiah’s minutes down. However, if he does play one of Burks & Bojan, using that same strategy could be reason for Thibs to employ a 10-man rotation (a strategy he hasn’t employed since his first year as head coach of the Knicks).

If Thibodeau remains stubborn on the idea of fielding a 9 man rotation, then the argument for starting Hartenstein might be the way to go. He could stagger both Robinson and Hartenstein’s minutes aggressively so that each one’s time is split evenly between the starters and the bench. It would be best to have each game start with Isaiah’s offense and defense, then pull him early enough to see significant time next to the bench lineups. Having Robinson possibly inherit a lead while getting to play next to the starters should work. As long as the McBride/Hart/Robinson minutes are kept to a minimum, the Knicks should still be able to avoid the long scoreless stretches that plagued them in the past.